Problem

The teams $T_1$ , $T_2$ , $T_3$ , and $T_4$ are in the playoffs. In the semifinal matches, $T_1$ plays $T_4$ , and $T_2$ plays $T_3$ . The winners of those two matches will play each other in the final match to determine the champion. When $T_i$ plays $T_j$ , the probability that $T_i$ wins is $\frac{i}{i+j}$ , and the outcomes of all the matches are independent. The probability that $T_4$ will be the champion is $\frac{p}{q}$ , where $p$ and $q$ are relatively prime positive integers. Find $p+q$ .

Solution

There are two scenarios in which $T_4$ wins. The first scenario is where $T_4$ beats $T_1$ , $T_3$ beats $T_2$ , and $T_4$ beats $T_3$ , and the second scenario is where $T_4$ beats $T_1$ , $T_2$ beats $T_3$ , and $T_4$ beats $T_2$ . Consider the first scenario. The probability $T_4$ beats $T_1$ is $\frac{4}{4+1}$ , the probability $T_3$ beats $T_2$ is $\frac{3}{3+2}$ , and the probability $T_4$ beats $T_3$ is $\frac{4}{4+3}$ . Therefore the first scenario happens with probability $\frac{4}{4+1}\cdot\frac{3}{3+2}\cdot\frac{4}{4+3}$ . Consider the second scenario. The probability $T_4$ beats $T_1$ is $\frac{4}{1+4}$ , the probability $T_2$ beats $T_3$ is $\frac{2}{2+3}$ , and the probability $T_4$ beats $T_2$ is $\frac{4}{4+2}$ . Therefore the second scenario happens with probability $\frac{4}{1+4}\cdot\frac{2}{2+3}\cdot\frac{4}{4+2}$ . By summing these two probabilities, the probability that $T_4$ wins is $\frac{4}{4+1}\cdot\frac{3}{3+2}\cdot\frac{4}{4+3}+\frac{4}{1+4}\cdot\frac{2}{2+3}\cdot\frac{4}{4+2}$ . Because this expression is equal to $\frac{256}{525}$ , the answer is $256+525=\boxed{781}$ .

2017 AIME II (Problems • Answer Key • Resources)
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