Difference between revisions of "1975 USAMO Problems/Problem 5"
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A deck of <math>n</math> playing cards, which contains three aces, is shuffled at random (it is assumed that all possible card distributions are equally likely). The cards are then turned up one by one from the top until the second ace appears. Prove that the expected (average) number of cards to be turned up is <math>(n+1)/2</math>. | A deck of <math>n</math> playing cards, which contains three aces, is shuffled at random (it is assumed that all possible card distributions are equally likely). The cards are then turned up one by one from the top until the second ace appears. Prove that the expected (average) number of cards to be turned up is <math>(n+1)/2</math>. | ||
| − | ==Solution 1== | + | ==Solution== |
| + | ===Solution 1=== | ||
We begin by induction. Our base case is naturally when <math>n = 3</math>, as there can be no less than <math>3</math> cards in the deck. The only way to turn up the second ace is to turn up the first, and then turn up the second, which requires <math>2</math> moves. This indeed is equal to <math>(3 + 1)/2</math>. Next, we assume that the expected number of cards required to pull the second ace from a deck of n cards is in fact <math>(n + 1)/2</math>. Now, we see that to simulate the case with <math>n + 1</math> cards, we simply must add a card to our deck. By our assumption, we can expect to turn up <math>(n + 1)/2</math> cards to be turned up, including our second ace. Thus ahead of our second ace, we expect <math>(n - 1)/2</math> cards , and after it <math>(n - 1)/2</math> as well. When we add our card, it is ahead of the second ace half the time, and behind if half the time. Therefore we expect to add one card to the number of cards drawn half the time, and add nothing for half the time. Hence we expect to add half a card, and the expected value is now <math>((n + 1)/2) + 1/2)</math>, or <math>(n + 2)/2</math>, the desired outcome for the <math>n + 1</math> case. | We begin by induction. Our base case is naturally when <math>n = 3</math>, as there can be no less than <math>3</math> cards in the deck. The only way to turn up the second ace is to turn up the first, and then turn up the second, which requires <math>2</math> moves. This indeed is equal to <math>(3 + 1)/2</math>. Next, we assume that the expected number of cards required to pull the second ace from a deck of n cards is in fact <math>(n + 1)/2</math>. Now, we see that to simulate the case with <math>n + 1</math> cards, we simply must add a card to our deck. By our assumption, we can expect to turn up <math>(n + 1)/2</math> cards to be turned up, including our second ace. Thus ahead of our second ace, we expect <math>(n - 1)/2</math> cards , and after it <math>(n - 1)/2</math> as well. When we add our card, it is ahead of the second ace half the time, and behind if half the time. Therefore we expect to add one card to the number of cards drawn half the time, and add nothing for half the time. Hence we expect to add half a card, and the expected value is now <math>((n + 1)/2) + 1/2)</math>, or <math>(n + 2)/2</math>, the desired outcome for the <math>n + 1</math> case. | ||
| − | ==Solution 2== | + | ===Solution 2=== |
Although we can induct as in the situation above, we can use a more direct approach. | Although we can induct as in the situation above, we can use a more direct approach. | ||
Revision as of 06:42, 20 June 2011
Problem
A deck of 
playing cards, which contains three aces, is shuffled at random (it is assumed that all possible card distributions are equally likely). The cards are then turned up one by one from the top until the second ace appears. Prove that the expected (average) number of cards to be turned up is 
.
Solution
Solution 1
We begin by induction. Our base case is naturally when 
, as there can be no less than 
cards in the deck. The only way to turn up the second ace is to turn up the first, and then turn up the second, which requires 
moves. This indeed is equal to 
. Next, we assume that the expected number of cards required to pull the second ace from a deck of n cards is in fact 
. Now, we see that to simulate the case with 
cards, we simply must add a card to our deck. By our assumption, we can expect to turn up cards to be turned up, including our second ace. Thus ahead of our second ace, we expect 
cards , and after it as well. When we add our card, it is ahead of the second ace half the time, and behind if half the time. Therefore we expect to add one card to the number of cards drawn half the time, and add nothing for half the time. Hence we expect to add half a card, and the expected value is now 
, or 
, the desired outcome for the case.
Solution 2
Although we can induct as in the situation above, we can use a more direct approach.
Consider a deck. The second ace is in the 
th place. If we draw the deck backwards (which has equal probability as drawing it forwards), then we will draw it in the 
th place, since the th place will become the first, the 
th the second, etc.
Now, this implies that the expected location of the second ace is in the 
place.
See also
| 1975 USAMO (Problems • Resources) | ||
| Preceded by Problem 4 |
Followed by Last Question | |
| 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 | ||
| All USAMO Problems and Solutions | ||
